July 30, 2010

GM Banruptcy-Good for the Economy, but Bad for Management?

Image via Wikipedia An interesting opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal, penned by Harvard Law School professor Mark J. Roe, argues that putting GM into Chapter 11 bankruptcy may not be as scary as GM management might want you to think: General Motors Corp. is back in Washington, this time asking for $12 billion to add to the $18 billion loan the government approved last year. The possibility of bankruptcy for GM is very real -- the company posted a loss of $30 billion in fiscal 2008. GM continues … [Read more...]

Mish's Open Letter to President Obama

Image via Wikipedia Okay, Mish and I are not politically aligned, but I like his approach and I think this Obama budget is going to be a powder keg in both parties. Full of democratic policy initiatives, much like the economic stimulus package, this budget is going to drive Americans and politicians crazy with images of overusing political capital. In classic Mish fashion he captures the key points: With all due respect Mr. President, Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke are offering the same policies … [Read more...]

Gearing Up for Obama to Address Congress, Economy

Image via Wikipedia Everyone is looking for a plan. The market is looking for any sort of clarity. Obama looks like he is throwing test messages (shit) against the people (the wall) to see what sticks. Don't get me wrong--this is a hard problem and a tough job to steer out of this mess. But, between Dodd, Giethner, and Bernanke there are too many confusing messages that everyone assumes are coming from the White House (or at least endorsed positions). I suspect tonight's address to a joint session … [Read more...]

Loan Modifications Getting Mixed Re-default Results

Sheila Bair FDIC

John Dugan, Comptroller of the Currency has people thinking about the potential risks of mortgage loan modifications. Releasing data earlier this week, Dugan revealed that over 50 percent of loan workouts re-default within the first six months. Meanwhile, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair says, "not so fast, check your data." Bair points to how loan are modified as the key determinate of success. For example, lowering rates drops that re-default rate to 23 percent according to Credit Suisse survey. A recent … [Read more...]

What Will Obama's Job Stimulus Plan Look Like?

A great analysis and compilation of President-elect Obama's potential Job Stimulus Plan. What do you think it might include or should include? … [Read more...]

TARP Reversal, Mortgage Servicers on Hot Seat, China Rapidly Slowing

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TARP Reversal, Paulson ADHD? Paulson leads his dramatic redirection of the Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP) with an adaption of John Maynard Keynes, “When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do, sir?”: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whipping out his dead economist quote book, used this gem from John Maynard Keynes to justify his bombshell Troubled Asset Relief Program update and redirection: "I will never apologize for -- for changing an approach or a strategy when the … [Read more...]

The Obama Mortgage Market Edition

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TARP II-A Better Troubled Asset Relief Program Will Obama focus on building a "better" TARP? One that looks more like the original Paulson plan, zeroing in on setting a price on the seed of the mortgage meltdown--"troubled assets?" Notably a portion of the TARP acronym, but reprioritized immediately out of the gate to a bank recapitalization plan. The argument being presented by some is that we are still facing the same problem Paulson called an emergency meeting of Congressional leader to warn … [Read more...]

President-Elect Obama's To-Do List

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President-elect Obama Economic To-Do List New York Times does a nice job of assemblying an economic to-do list for the new President-elect, with break-out depth on each topic. A highly recommended read to get your arms around the monumental tasks we and Obama have mandated on his election. (photo credit: florian) … [Read more...]

New Hope?

11-5 post election market

New Hope has a rocky start: Mr. President we have a problem: The FDR/Obama parallel may not be extreme. This is going to be a fast start for President Obama anyway you look at it. His cabinet picks are going to be critical to success. … [Read more...]

Obama Wins, New Treasury Secretary, Making Your Own Success

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Obama Wins Historic Election, Now What? No question this was a historic election on many counts. However, the big question looms: We are beyond the campaign promises, now what do we really get? This was a campaign filled with a boat-load of promises, walking into a fist full of problems. I hope the "Hope" American's elected delivers the hope we expected--we will certainly get change. Handicapping the New Treasury Secretary We have already jumped into the Cabinet guessing game. Dealbreaker is looking … [Read more...]